Bob Knight is going to break Dean Smith’s record of 879 career victories, and he’s going to break it this season. I’ve already got it figured out. I’ve done the math.

Entering his fifth season at Texas Tech and his 40th overall, Knight had 854 wins. He needed 26 to pass Smith, and that’s exactly how many wins he’s going to get this season. Again, I’ve done the math. The record will fall in the Sweet 16, when Texas Tech wins to advance to a region championship game.

The 700 club
Name, school Age Wins*
1. Bob Knight, Tex. Tech 65 854
Dean’s record is going down
2. Eddie Sutton, Okla. St. 69 781
He’ll hit 800, then hand it over to Sean
3. Lute Olson, Arizona 71 740
Might pass Dean, but not Knight
4. John Chaney, Temple 73 724
No shot the way he schedules
5. Mike Krzyzewski, Duke 58 721
He’ll get there, and put it out of reach
6. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse 61 703
Will pass Dean, but not Coach K
6. Jim Calhoun, UConn 63 703
See Boeheim
Note: * - wins entering season
Who’s Texas Tech going to beat in the Sweet 16? Sorry. The crystal ball is only so clear.
But it’s clear on this: Knight needed 26 wins to pass Smith, and the Red Raiders will go 26-10 this season. At worst.

See for yourself. It’s all there in the Texas Tech schedule.

For starters, the Red Raiders will play at least two additional regular-season games this season thanks to their season-opening spot in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Texas Tech devoured San Jose State 88-54 on Thursday night in the first round, and will do the same Friday at home against Georgia Southern.

Even if the Red Raiders lose in the CVC semifinals next week to Syracuse at Madison Square Garden, they’ll be on their way to an 11-2 record in the non-conference schedule. At worst. Click on this underlined word — Texas Tech — and see the Red Raiders’ schedule for yourself.

Bob Knight will lean on Tech’s Martin Zeno to get to 26 wins this season. (Getty Images)
There are only three non-conference games Texas Tech could lose — at UNLV, against Arkansas in Dallas, and against UTEP — and it says here the Red Raiders will win two of them. At worst.

So there’s Texas Tech, 11-2 entering the Big 12 schedule. What does history show? History shows the Red Raiders have averaged nine Big 12 wins per year under Knight. Twice in those four years, Texas Tech has gone 10-6 in the league. This being Knight’s best, deepest team, we’re saying Texas Tech goes 10-6 again this season. At worst.

So there’s Texas Tech, 21-8 entering the 2006 Big 12 Tournament. What does history show now? It shows Knight winning two games in three of his first four shots at the Big 12 Tournament. Again, this being Knight’s best team yet at Texas Tech, we’re saying the Red Raiders go 2-1 again in the conference tourney. At worst.

So there’s Texas Tech, 23-9 entering the 2006 NCAA Tournament. Knight will be sitting at 877 victories, one ahead of Kentucky’s Adolph Rupp — alone in second place, two wins short of tying Smith.

Last season in the NCAA Tournament, the Red Raiders were a No. 6 seed and won two games to reach the Sweet 16. To do it, they had to beat two West Coast teams — UCLA and Gonzaga — in Tucson, Ariz. Not easy.

The Next Generation
Name, school Age Wins*
1. Roy Williams, UNC 55 470
Climbing fast, but not fast enough
2. Rick Pitino, L’ville 53 449
Would have 600 if not for NBA
3. Kelvin Sampson, Okla. 50 435
Must turn it on to catch Dean
4. Rick Barnes, Texas 51 363
Got to Texas too late to catch Dean
5. Tubby Smith, Kentucky 54 343
Like Tom Izzo (50, 233), he got first coaching job too late
6. John Calipari, Memphis 46 308
Time in NBA hurts his chances
7. Bill Self, Kansas 42 254
Will pass Dean, if he wants
8. Billy Donovan, Florida 40 228
Can this grinder go to age 70?
9. Paul Hewitt, Ga. Tech 42 162
The NBA might beckon first
10. Mark Few, Gonzaga 42 159
On pace to hit 800 at age 66
Note: * - wins entering season
It says here that Texas Tech will be a No. 3 or a No. 4 seed this time around, and as such will be sent to Dallas for the NCAA Tournament’s early round pod on March 17 and March 19. Win those two games, and Texas Tech is 25-9 — and Knight is tied with Dean Smith at 879.
Imagine the Sweet 16 game that would come next. It could be anywhere — Atlanta or Oakland, Minneapolis or Washington, D.C. It could be against anyone — Duke or Connecticut, Indiana or Texas.

It wouldn’t matter. Bob Knight, trying to get Texas Tech into the region title game and knock off Dean Smith as the winningest coach in Division I? No way he’d lose that game. The bigger the game, the better he is.

There’s a reason Knight has one more national championship than Smith with less than half the Final Four appearances. Smith was a better recruiter and a brilliant coach, but Knight’s the best tactician in college basketball history.

Look at it this way: Smith won 879 games in 36 years, all at North Carolina, and did it with 11 future NBA All-Stars. While it’s true that Knight has coached four more seasons than Smith, keep in mind that he spent six years at Army, and now five at Texas Tech. These are not basketball schools. And Knight has had just one NBA All-Star (Isiah Thomas).

And look deeper. Smith followed Hall of Fame coach Frank McGuire, whose last five teams went 126-27. Knight replaced someone named Lou Watson, inheriting a program that had gone 55-66 in the five previous years.

Smith won two titles in 11 trips to the Final Four. Knight has three titles in five trips, and he’s 3-0 in NCAA title games. For Knight, winning No. 880 in the Sweet 16 would surely be like winning another NCAA championship. If Texas Tech gets there — and we’re saying, Texas Tech will get there — mark it down. Knight wins. The record is his.

And then the real race is on. Knight, 65, will end this season about 130 victories ahead of his protégé, Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, 58. Can Knight stick around long enough to put the record out of Coach K’s reach? No way.

You don’t need a crystal ball to know that. To overtake Smith and Knight, Krzyzewski would coach until he’s 100.

Soon after Alan Trammell was fired Monday morning as manager of the Detroit Tigers, Jim Leyland was en route to the Motor City as the leading candidate to replace him.

Tigers president and general manager Dave Dombrowski planned to have interviewed Juan Samuel and Bruce Fields - both from Trammell’s staff - before discussing the opening with Leyland about 24 hours after the regular season ended.

“I am driven to move quickly because I think there could be a lot of interest in Jim Leyland,” said Dombrowski, adding his search could end as soon as Tuesday.

Trammell was fired after three seasons in which he failed to turn around a franchise without a winning record since 1993. The Tigers were expected to be close to .500, if not better, but fell short with a collapse toward the end of the season and finished 71-91.

“I thought we responded to everything well except for this last month,” Trammell said last week. “I think, looking back, it is fair to say that we hit a wall.”

The Tigers were 186-300 in three seasons under Trammell. The MVP the 1984 World Series, who had one year left on his contract, did not return a message seeking comment Monday.

Detroit lost an AL-record 119 games in Trammell’s first season as manager, then improved to 72-90 last year, the biggest turnaround in the AL since Baltimore’s 33-game improvement from 1988 to 1989.

“I’m sad to see him go,” pitcher Mike Maroth said. “I would’ve liked to see him get another year, but these things happen in sports.”

With a lineup and bullpen that seemed upgraded, the Tigers thought they had a chance for a winning season. The Tigers were 42-44 at the All-Star break and 61-62 in late August before losing 29 of their last 39 games.

“We thought we had a chance to be a better ballclub,” Dombrowski said.

Dombrowski wouldn’t give details when pressed by reporters for reasons he made the decision to fire Trammell.

“I did to him, I don’t think I owe it to you,” he said.

Leyland, a former Florida, Pittsburgh and Colorado manager, told The Associated Press that the Tigers called him Monday morning to set up an interview with him that evening.

“It’s well known that I interviewed with Philadelphia last winter, and I’d like to manage again,” the 60-year-old Leyland said last month.

Leyland helped the Marlins win the 1997 World Series - with Dombrowski as general manager - and was a two-time NL Manager of the Year while leading the Pirates. He was 72-90 with the Rockies in 1999, his last season as manager.

“He’s an outstanding manager, one of the best in baseball,” Dombrowski said.

The Tigers were set back by injuries, but Trammell refused to point to them as an excuse. Outfielder Magglio Ordonez missed about half of the season with a hernia, and closer Troy Percival appeared in just 26 games before an elbow injury ended his season in July. Both were hailed as prized free-agent signings before the season.

Standout shortstop Carlos Guillen also struggled to stay healthy after having knee surgery last year.

“Really, I’m OK,” the 47-year-old Trammell said last week as speculation grew that he would be fired. “I’m a big boy. I’ve been through enough that I understand how things are.”

Things were much different when Trammell was a player and helped the Tigers post 11 consecutive winning seasons from 1978-88.

As a 20-year standout in the field and at the plate, he led Detroit to a World Series championship in 1984 and the AL East title in 1987, when he narrowly was beaten out by Toronto’s George Bell for AL MVP.

Trammell was a six-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove and three-time Silver Slugger shortstop.

After he retired in 1996, he was a baseball operations assistant in Detroit for two seasons and was the Tigers’ hitting coach in 1999. Then, he moved near his hometown and coached with the San Diego Padres for three seasons.

The Tigers knew Trammell was the popular choice to be their 35th manager on Oct. 9, 2002, and they insisted he was also the right choice. Trammell, Al Kaline and Ty Cobb are the only players to be with the team for at least 20 seasons.

“I’m saddened because you’re dealing with somebody who has put their heart and soul into something,” Dombrowski said. “For the organization, he’s one of the greatest players of all time. If you’ve met Alan Trammell and you don’t like him, you should probably look at yourself.”

DETROIT — The Tigers’ shopping season officially began Friday, but don’t expect an immediate splash so much as shopping early on.
“I think they’re taking a little bit more of a wait-and-see approach,” said agent Darek Braunecker, who represents top free agent starting pitcher A.J. Burnett.

While team president/general manager Dave Dombrowski returned to Detroit on Friday from this week’s GM meetings in California, agents continued talks with clubs. Friday marked the first day teams can talk contracts with free agents other than their own. Given that baseball’s winter meetings remain more than three weeks away, the peak period for free-agent signings remains far on the horizon.

Braunecker began the sizeable task Friday of whittling down Burnett’s list of potential teams from the 20 or so that expressed initial interest down to about half that number. He did not talk with the Tigers on Friday, nor did he meet formally with them at the GM meetings. However, they remain a team he’s watching.

Other agents, including some who have not heard from the Tigers yet, indicated a similar sense that Detroit is a team in waiting and that the Tigers have not yet made contact with all the players in which they’re interested.

The Tigers did meet with agent Scott Boras at the GM meetings. Not only does he represent many of the top starters on the market aside from Burnett, but he also represents several current Tigers the team must address this offseason, including arbitration-eligible first baseman Carlos Pena and All-Star catcher Ivan Rodriguez.

Boras said he had a “good pulse” from their meeting. He also got a similar sense of the Tigers’ status on the market.

“I think like most teams, they’re sizing up their needs,” Boras said. “Obviously they want pitching.”

Much like the past two offseasons, Boras has commodities the Tigers want. Kevin Millwood is generally regarded as the second-most coveted starting pitcher on the market after Burnett. In some circles, Millwood is valued more because of his track record. Boras said 18-20 teams have shown initial interest in Millwood, about as many teams as have shown interest in Burnett. The Tigers are believed to be among them.

Boras also represents fellow free-agent starters Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver and Kenny Rogers.

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Dombrowski does not discuss specific free agents. However, he said last week that his offseason priorities are to add a veteran starting pitcher and a closer. On the closer front, the Tigers have had discussions with the agent for Billy Wagner, the Phillies stopper generally regarded as the top closer on the market, and have reportedly shown interest in Orioles closer B.J. Ryan and Indians reliever Bobby Howry. The New York Daily News reported last week that Wagner plans to visit Detroit.

The Tigers are also expected to visit talks with former closer Kyle Farnsworth, whom they dealt to Atlanta at the July 31 trading deadline.

The Tigers were aggressive early last offseason, signing closer Troy Percival to a two-year, $12 million contract by Thanksgiving and scheduling visits with second baseman Jeff Kent and Carl Pavano by early December’s Winter Meetings. Several free agents turned Detroit’s interest into more aggressiveness from other teams and signed elsewhere, including Kent and Pavano.