Bob Knight is going to break Dean Smith’s record of 879 career victories, and he’s going to break it this season. I’ve already got it figured out. I’ve done the math.

Entering his fifth season at Texas Tech and his 40th overall, Knight had 854 wins. He needed 26 to pass Smith, and that’s exactly how many wins he’s going to get this season. Again, I’ve done the math. The record will fall in the Sweet 16, when Texas Tech wins to advance to a region championship game.

The 700 club
Name, school Age Wins*
1. Bob Knight, Tex. Tech 65 854
Dean’s record is going down
2. Eddie Sutton, Okla. St. 69 781
He’ll hit 800, then hand it over to Sean
3. Lute Olson, Arizona 71 740
Might pass Dean, but not Knight
4. John Chaney, Temple 73 724
No shot the way he schedules
5. Mike Krzyzewski, Duke 58 721
He’ll get there, and put it out of reach
6. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse 61 703
Will pass Dean, but not Coach K
6. Jim Calhoun, UConn 63 703
See Boeheim
Note: * - wins entering season
Who’s Texas Tech going to beat in the Sweet 16? Sorry. The crystal ball is only so clear.
But it’s clear on this: Knight needed 26 wins to pass Smith, and the Red Raiders will go 26-10 this season. At worst.

See for yourself. It’s all there in the Texas Tech schedule.

For starters, the Red Raiders will play at least two additional regular-season games this season thanks to their season-opening spot in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Texas Tech devoured San Jose State 88-54 on Thursday night in the first round, and will do the same Friday at home against Georgia Southern.

Even if the Red Raiders lose in the CVC semifinals next week to Syracuse at Madison Square Garden, they’ll be on their way to an 11-2 record in the non-conference schedule. At worst. Click on this underlined word — Texas Tech — and see the Red Raiders’ schedule for yourself.

Bob Knight will lean on Tech’s Martin Zeno to get to 26 wins this season. (Getty Images)
There are only three non-conference games Texas Tech could lose — at UNLV, against Arkansas in Dallas, and against UTEP — and it says here the Red Raiders will win two of them. At worst.

So there’s Texas Tech, 11-2 entering the Big 12 schedule. What does history show? History shows the Red Raiders have averaged nine Big 12 wins per year under Knight. Twice in those four years, Texas Tech has gone 10-6 in the league. This being Knight’s best, deepest team, we’re saying Texas Tech goes 10-6 again this season. At worst.

So there’s Texas Tech, 21-8 entering the 2006 Big 12 Tournament. What does history show now? It shows Knight winning two games in three of his first four shots at the Big 12 Tournament. Again, this being Knight’s best team yet at Texas Tech, we’re saying the Red Raiders go 2-1 again in the conference tourney. At worst.

So there’s Texas Tech, 23-9 entering the 2006 NCAA Tournament. Knight will be sitting at 877 victories, one ahead of Kentucky’s Adolph Rupp — alone in second place, two wins short of tying Smith.

Last season in the NCAA Tournament, the Red Raiders were a No. 6 seed and won two games to reach the Sweet 16. To do it, they had to beat two West Coast teams — UCLA and Gonzaga — in Tucson, Ariz. Not easy.

The Next Generation
Name, school Age Wins*
1. Roy Williams, UNC 55 470
Climbing fast, but not fast enough
2. Rick Pitino, L’ville 53 449
Would have 600 if not for NBA
3. Kelvin Sampson, Okla. 50 435
Must turn it on to catch Dean
4. Rick Barnes, Texas 51 363
Got to Texas too late to catch Dean
5. Tubby Smith, Kentucky 54 343
Like Tom Izzo (50, 233), he got first coaching job too late
6. John Calipari, Memphis 46 308
Time in NBA hurts his chances
7. Bill Self, Kansas 42 254
Will pass Dean, if he wants
8. Billy Donovan, Florida 40 228
Can this grinder go to age 70?
9. Paul Hewitt, Ga. Tech 42 162
The NBA might beckon first
10. Mark Few, Gonzaga 42 159
On pace to hit 800 at age 66
Note: * - wins entering season
It says here that Texas Tech will be a No. 3 or a No. 4 seed this time around, and as such will be sent to Dallas for the NCAA Tournament’s early round pod on March 17 and March 19. Win those two games, and Texas Tech is 25-9 — and Knight is tied with Dean Smith at 879.
Imagine the Sweet 16 game that would come next. It could be anywhere — Atlanta or Oakland, Minneapolis or Washington, D.C. It could be against anyone — Duke or Connecticut, Indiana or Texas.

It wouldn’t matter. Bob Knight, trying to get Texas Tech into the region title game and knock off Dean Smith as the winningest coach in Division I? No way he’d lose that game. The bigger the game, the better he is.

There’s a reason Knight has one more national championship than Smith with less than half the Final Four appearances. Smith was a better recruiter and a brilliant coach, but Knight’s the best tactician in college basketball history.

Look at it this way: Smith won 879 games in 36 years, all at North Carolina, and did it with 11 future NBA All-Stars. While it’s true that Knight has coached four more seasons than Smith, keep in mind that he spent six years at Army, and now five at Texas Tech. These are not basketball schools. And Knight has had just one NBA All-Star (Isiah Thomas).

And look deeper. Smith followed Hall of Fame coach Frank McGuire, whose last five teams went 126-27. Knight replaced someone named Lou Watson, inheriting a program that had gone 55-66 in the five previous years.

Smith won two titles in 11 trips to the Final Four. Knight has three titles in five trips, and he’s 3-0 in NCAA title games. For Knight, winning No. 880 in the Sweet 16 would surely be like winning another NCAA championship. If Texas Tech gets there — and we’re saying, Texas Tech will get there — mark it down. Knight wins. The record is his.

And then the real race is on. Knight, 65, will end this season about 130 victories ahead of his protégé, Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, 58. Can Knight stick around long enough to put the record out of Coach K’s reach? No way.

You don’t need a crystal ball to know that. To overtake Smith and Knight, Krzyzewski would coach until he’s 100.